Demand Forecasting Tool for Capacity Planning – The Healthcare Service Analytics & Decision Intelligence Atlas

Summary

This flexible tool uses the Facebook Prophet time series forecasting model to generate forward projections of demand, providing a simple way to turn historical activity data into actionable insights for planning. Intuitive visualisations and narrative summaries highlight trends, seasonal patterns, and uncertainty.

The tool also supports capacity-aware analysis by comparing projected demand against service limits, allowing identification of potential pressure points, quantification of gaps between demand and capacity, and exploration of how changes in assumptions may affect outcomes. Results can be exported as a shareable report.

Rating: Silver

"This is a web-based tool which can be used by practically anyone who can upload a spreadsheet with monthly activity data. Is is not ranked gold because it has not been through extensive tests and is not yet well-established."

This tool is a Streamlit-based application designed to support demand forecasting and capacity planning using the Facebook Prophet time series model. It enables users to upload structured activity data (typically monthly referrals or service volumes) and generate forward projections with minimal setup, making it suitable for operational and planning contexts.

Once data is uploaded, the tool fits a time series model and produces a range of outputs that help users understand both future demand and its implications. Core outputs include:

Forecast visualisation: A time series chart showing historical data, projected demand, and uncertainty intervals
Trend and seasonality views: Decomposition of demand into long-term trend and recurring patterns (e.g. annual seasonality)
Summary narrative: Automatically generated interpretation explaining expected changes in demand, including both overall growth and comparison to recent activity
Capacity analysis: Overlay of user-defined capacity thresholds to identify when demand may exceed available capacity
Risk metrics: Quantification of periods above capacity, estimated unmet demand, and required capacity to avoid breaches

Upload your own data
Work flexibly with data from different sources, handling variations in column names and date format
View forecasts in interactve plots
View narrative explanations of the forecasts
Explore details like overarching trends…
… and seasonality, and download the results as a shareable report

The tool also supports scenario testing, allowing users to explore how changes such as altered referral patterns or conversion rates could impact future demand.

Outputs can be exported as a standalone HTML report with embedded interactive charts and narrative summaries, enabling easy sharing of insights.

Overall, the tool bridges the gap between raw data and operational planning, enabling users to move beyond static spreadsheets toward more dynamic, evidence-based forecasting.