Renal Capacity DES Model

This model was developed by the Strategy Unit in collaboration with the Midlands Renal Operational Delivery Network (MRODN).

It is an open-source sequential SD-DES hybrid model of renal care with two components:

• A system dynamics (SD) model of CKD progression.
• A discrete-event simulation (DES) model of Kidney Replacement Therapy (KRT) patient pathways for capacity planning.

Hybrid model:

Summary of model pathways (SD and DES), from Midlands Analyst Network Huddle talk on the model.

Modelling objectives:

1. How might demand change over time?
2. What does that mean for capacity for renal services?
3. Use scenarios to model the ability to mitigate future demand

DES is used to model the KRT pathway and is created using Python (SimPy).

Example of scenarios explored:

Example of scenarios explored, from Midlands Analyst Network Huddle talk on the model.